Mesopotamia · ca. 3100–2900 BCE
Quantitative market intelligence
Markets price uncertainty. Information has structure too.
Skarnode measures changes in the structure of public information and tests whether those changes contain information not yet fully expressed in markets.WTI / relative volatility
strike × expiry
01 How did markets learn to represent uncertainty?
DescendBefore the surface
Uncertainty did not begin as a number.
It began as something language had to preserve: an amount owed, a price heard elsewhere, a promise exposed to time.
CLAY / PAPYRUS / WIRE / MATHEMATICSAn archaeology of market uncertainty
01 / 09
Markets learned to preserve transactions. Then to represent price. Then to quantify uncertainty. Now there is another state to measure.
Information has a shape too.
WTI options · strike × expiry · ATM = 1.0
Visual representation of the research framework.
Market Information Distance
Market · observed market structure
Markets describe uncertainty in price.
Continuous, priced, already expressed. The observed WTI relative implied-volatility shape.Frozen out-of-sample test
Information structure preceded volatility.
A specification fixed before 2022 identified information regimes associated with substantially higher subsequent realised oil volatility during the untouched 2022+ holdout.
5 sessions
52.1%
extreme-volatility event rate
vs 11.8% outside the identified regime
4.41× observed lift
10 sessions
58.2%
extreme-volatility event rate
vs 11.6% outside the identified regime
5.02× observed lift
Survived block-bootstrap, temporal-shift and multiple-testing controls.
Not sentiment. Not headlines.
Structure.
Research statistics, not investment returns.
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